The India Metrological Department (IMD) has predicted monsoon rainfall to be above normal this year. Monsoon usually arrives the southern tip of Kerala around June and retreats in mid-September every year.

The weathermen have predeicted that the monsoon in 2025 is expected to total 106% of the long-term avaerage this year.

A normal or average rainfall ranges between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm Monsoon.

“The 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm,” the IMD said.

The weathermen said currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season,” the IMD said.

Meanwhile, the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March, 2024) was below normal.

“Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall,” IMD said.

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The IMD will issue updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.

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